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BOSTON (Reuters) – As the Major League Baseball flavour hits flooded swing this weekend, a Colony professor predicts the Beantown Red Sox module easily outflank disjunctive competition the New royalty Yankees in 2011.

Dimitris Bertsimas of the Colony Institute of Technology utilised decimal models supported on contestant analytics to predict the Red Sox module get 101 games this season, eight more than the Yankees.

New royalty won 95 games terminal flavour to finish ordinal in the American League East and Beantown was ordinal with 89 wins.

"A contestant is a agent of drawing and from that, we crapper prognosticate coverall aggroup statistics," said Bertsimas, co-director of MIT's Operations Research Center and admitted Red Sox fan.

In a newborn essay "The Analytics Edge in Baseball," Bertsimas and degree student Allison O'Hair matured threesome models to determine the outcome of teams' 162-game seasons.

The metropolis Bay Rays, terminal year's AL East champs, are prognosticate to hit added enthusiastic year with 100 wins. Divisional also-rans are prognosticate to be the Baltimore Orioles with 83 wins and the Toronto Blue Jays, with 80.

Bertsimas and O'Hair hit not run the drawing on some of the league's another divisions.

The models take in a difference of factors, including the number of runs a presented aggroup scores, to a particular player's on-base and slugging percentage.

Some of the elements were supported on Michael Lewis' 2003 best-selling book "Moneyball," most how metropolis A's General Manager Billy Beane utilised decimal methods to create a winning aggroup on a lacing budget.

The accumulation was calibrated supported on terminal year's statistics as substantially as this year's outflow training.

A 101-game winning flavour is relatively rare. "In Las Vegas, the ratio are for the Sox to get 95 games, so we hit a pretty beatific benchmark," Bertsimas said.

All bets are off once the playoffs start, though, because luck crapper endeavor a such larger factor in a five- or seven-game program than it crapper over the instruction of a lawful season, he said. "Unexpected things happen."

When not crunching ballgame stats Bertsimas teaches at the university Sloan School of Management, including the collection "The Analytics Edge" on how companies from Google to Goldman Sachs to Federal Express use analytics to increase their lowermost line.

"Human intuition tells us which factors to countenance at to attain these predictions, and how such to matter them, but after that, we permit the accumulation speak for itself," he said.

The Red Sox unstoppered their 2011 flavour on weekday against the defending American League champion Texas Rangers.

(Reporting by Ros Krasny; Editing by Frank Pingue)

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